Those warmongering Never-Trumpers

As in Iraq, so with Iran.

Photo by Pixabay

I’d like to think I’m a “big tent” guy.

For the moment, American politics is less about Democrats versus Republicans and more about pro-democracy and anti-democracy. That framing largely — but not completely — maps onto the two parties. For example: There are all those Never-Trump Republicans on pro-democracy side.

The thing about the NTRs, though, is that a lot of them were part of the cheerleading brigade that helped America get us into the Iraq War. It has made being on the same side of the Trump issue a bit uncomfortable for those of us whose memories stretch back a quarter-century. The backlash to that war — and to the War on Terror — arguable helped get us where we are today. Forget the backlash: The NTRs (we used to call them “neocons” before Trump was a thing) were simply wrong about the biggest foreign policy disaster for America since Vietnam.

As with Iraq, so with Iran.

It doesn’t escape my notice that a lot of the NTR crowd this week seems to be eager to join Israel in dropping bombs on the Persian landscape.

There is David Frum, who coined the “Axis of Evil” phrase during George W. Bush’s presidency, sniffing that Trump might be hesitating to plunge into battle, albeit in NeverTrump terms:

Trump seems to recognize that he cannot unify the nation and therefore dares not lead it into any arduous or hazardous undertaking. That may be the secret self-awareness behind Trump’s “two weeks” hesitation. This is not a self-awareness that will help Israel or secure the United States’ long-term interest in depriving Iran of a nuclear weapon. But in the absence of any strategic planning or preparedness, that self-awareness is all we have to guide the country through the next fortnight and, very possibly, a long succession of “two weeks” after that.

There is Bill Kristol, formerly of the Bush-era Weekly Standard and now urging on war at The Bulwark:

So it makes sense to support Israel in its impressive effort to do this work for all of us. It also makes sense for the United States to be willing to step in and finish the job of denuclearization—if necessary. It would make no sense to stop now, with the job only partly done, leaving in place a wounded regime thirsting for revenge, with its capacity for terrorism retained and with enriched uranium and missiles still on hand. If that regime is to stay in power, it needs to be thoroughly neutralized.

You start to wonder if any lessons were learned, or if the NTR neocons are doomed to keep repeating a history they helped make.

But this is an unfair gloss, perhaps, because a few folks did learn some lessons.

There’s Peter Beinart, who advocated for the Iraq invasion from the pages of The New Republic way back when. Now?

…you might think Democratic leaders would be doing everything they can to prevent President Trump from striking Iran without the approval of Congress. Sadly, they’re not. More than 20 years ago, powerful Washington Democrats acceded too timidly to a catastrophic Middle Eastern war. Now they’re at risk of doing so again.

And finally there is Robert Kagan, a smart guy who has long taken the hawkish side of most debates, but who speaks with uncommon clarity at The Atlantic.

That is the context in which a war with Iran will occur. Donald Trump has assumed dictatorial control over the nation’s law enforcement. The Justice Department, the police, ICE agents, and the National Guard apparently answer to him, not to the people or the Constitution. He has neutered Congress by effectively taking control of the power of the purse. And, most relevant in Iran’s case, he is actively and openly turning the U.S. military into his personal army, for use as he sees fit, including as a tool of domestic oppression. Whatever action he does or doesn’t take in Iran will likely be in furtherance of these goals. When he celebrates the bombing of Iran, he will be celebrating himself and his rule. The president ordered a military parade to honor his birthday. Imagine what he will do when he proclaims military success in Iran. The president is working to instill in our nation’s soldiers a devotion to him and him alone. Imagine how that relationship will blossom if he orders what he will portray as a successful military mission.

Kagan’s reason for opposing the war is different from my own, which is that “preventive war” is simply “a war of aggression” spoken of in euphemism. Iran does not have nuclear weapons. Bombing Iran to keep it from getting nukes might, perversely, make the regime more likely to try to actually get the weapons.

It might also make the Iranian people — no fans of their government, by and large — more willing to stick with and support the devil they know in the face of an outside threat.

But Kagan is right: An authoritarian-minded president at war will only become more authoritarian at home. I’m not sure if that means Kagan has learned from the failures of Iraq — unlike Kristol and Frum — or if he merely has a savvier sense of time and place.

What I do know is that the big tent somehow feels a bit constrictive this week.

What I’m writing

Bombers at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri reportedly took off this morning to position themselves for any possible attack on Iran. At the Kansas City Star, I say that obligates war-skeptical Sen. Josh Hawley to claim Congress’ constitutional prerogative over warmaking.

“I don’t want us fighting a war,” he told CNN’s Manu Raju this week. “I don’t want another Mideast war … I’m a little concerned about our sudden military buildup in the region.” That’s a big statement. He’s right. Here’s the thing: If Hawley truly believes what he says — that he would rather leave the warmaking to Israel and have the United States not get into the fighting — then he can do something about it. He is a notable member of a coequal branch of government, after all.

What I’m watching

“Hundreds of Beavers” was reportedly made for $150,000 and it’s proof that you don’t need a ton of money to make an inspired movie. This is a combination of Charlie Chaplin, Looney Toons and (unexpectedly) video games. It runs a bit long, but you can’t blame the filmmakers for trying to fit in every possible gag into the runtime. My local arthouse cinema showed it Thursday night: Best to watch with a crowd if you can — it’s playing as a one-off roadshow around the country but it is also available on Kanopy right now.