If Ukraine kicks the Russian invaders out, that’s a good thing.
I think.
But maybe not?
Let’s start with the basics: the Ukrainians have mounted a counteroffensive, and it looks like it’s going pretty well. I’m always skeptical of wartime reports of smashing victories, but it certainly seems like Putin’s invaders are collapsing.
The victory marches are already starting, at least on Twitter1.
So why am I nervous?
Two reasons, one in the short-term and one in the longer-term.
Short-term: I’m old enough to remember all the way back to the beginning of the war last spring, when it was clear the Russians were faltering. Some folks started talking about the need to give Vladimir Putin a face-saving way out of the war because, after all, Russia is still a nuclear power and he might decide that an outright loss is unacceptable.
Here’s Tom McTague in The Atlantic, back in March:
More than that, though, the very fact of Russia’s weakness creates its own set of dangers. First, the West might become overconfident about how far it can push the Russian state. Second, the prospect of defeat in Ukraine raises the chance that Putin will escalate the conflict. The Russian president might calculate that he simply cannot lose, increasing the odds that he will deploy nuclear or biological weapons to change the facts on the ground and expose the West’s apparent reticence to retaliate. The nature of his regime means that not only is his power at stake, but potentially his wealth and even his life.
That kind of talk has receded to the background in the wake of both Ukraine’s stoutness in fending off Russian advances, and also the ever-greater commitment of the West to Ukraine’s defense. It’s not just the weapons, but the all-in moral effort involved in asking Europeans to suffer through a potentially costly and cold winter without Russia’s energy supplies.
But a serious question: Why should we be any less worried now than we were then about Putin’s willingness to do something horrific?
Long-term: We’ve seen Russia lose before — the war in Afghanistan, the Cold War. We celebrated. Rightly.
But how did that work out, really?
An attempt at liberalization followed the fall of the Soviet Union. It didn’t last two long. First, the oligarchs ran rampant, then Putin took over and gradually reimposed authoritarian governance without the Soviet era’s pretense of egalitarian goals. And now we’re here.
Maybe this time would be different.
But the recent evidence doesn’t really suggest that a defeated Russia will be a chastened Russia — or a better Russia.
That probably can’t be helped. Ukraine can’t be asked to sacrifice itself in order to salve Vladimir Putin’s ego or save Russia’s government from its own mistakes. It will be a good thing if Ukraine wins and Russia is subsequently unable to threaten its neighbors. But it’s still a bit early for the victory marches — Twitter or otherwise.
Top o’ the pops
This Dan Rather tweet irritates me because it suggests there’s a moral dimension to Ukraine’s current success, instead of it being — to a large degree — the result of America and NATO giving the country really effective weapons. I think the Ukrainians are the good guys in this fight, and the people’s solidarity in the face of aggression can’t be discounted. But it’s good to have rich friends with big guns. Without them, we might be looking at a very different story.
Interesting essay Joel , yet short on evidence beyond the Western Mainstream Media narratives -
contradicting themselves from one fortnight to the next - and tendentious on military affairs which most commentators know nothing of, their ideas grounded in first World War Maginot Line thinking, if grounded in anything at all.
Give it a year or so, then looking back for the evidence and that unavoidable cognitive dissonance moment that will wash over the population with memories of goldfish.
The West and its decline, the subject of these essays . . . https://les7eb.substack.com/
For yours and others' amusement and edification.
The Sage From The South.
Tens of millions of residents of the liberated nations of the former Soviet Union might not be as gloomy as you. (Have you been channeling George Carlin? “Behind every silver lining, there’s a dark cloud.”)
Perhaps the biggest unknown is how Russians will react when Putin can no longer pretend all is going well in Ukraine. If he has to conscript soldiers or declare austerity measures, will he maintain full loyalty of the elites and the people (who mainly appear to be oblivious, thanks to the regime’s disinformation)? Can he suppress an outright revolt and maintain power? Putin’s government is no paper tiger, but it does show signs of internal fragility. And Russia hasn’t dealt with genuine domestic unrest since the Gorbachev/Yeltsin transition.